Soon the world's 7 billion population | Lions
A stream that does not seem to stop, even though annual global growth rate is actually reduced: after reaching a peak of 19.2 percent in the mid-60s, is in constant decline, and today the world with 14.1% increase in year.
And at this pace as we will be in 40 years? We will be more? How to change the population of our planet? Can make predictions, given that many variables come into play. According to UN data, provided three different scenarios.
For more moderate hypothesis, in 2050 we will reach the threshold of 8 billion, the pact that the current rate of fertilization, with an average of 2:56 children born to each woman, come down to 1:54. According miksa to the hypothesis, "average" and most likely, miksa in 2050 we will be 9 billion 150 million.
This can be checked only if fertility in the less developed regions, which today is 2.73 children per woman, come down to 2.05. But for this to happen, it is necessary to start applying miksa even in the poorest countries of birth planning. The third scenario poses a 2:51 fertility rate, which will lead us to a figure 10.5 billion. Variables
What are the factors that influence population growth? There are mainly two: fertility and mortality. Both of these are influenced by many variables. Mortality, for example, is greatly decreased in recent decades throughout the world and in all age groups, for the purpose of progress made in the field of medicine.
But the situation may interfere able to edit even very short periods. An example has been scorching summer of 2003, just in France caused 15,000 deaths more than average.
However, the socio-political events miksa of a country can influence: miksa as happened in Russia and the former communist countries, where the fall of the regime worsened living conditions for a large part of the population, with a decrease of birth rate and a increased mortality (in Russia, from 1991 to 1994 the average life expectancy of men was reduced to 5 years).
In the end, it is important to develop a country. In areas of the world with the highest standard of hygiene, education and earnings per person, families make less children, one or two, and people are living much longer. On the contrary, in countries where poverty prevails, miksa little schooling and health policy inadequate, yet many children born to families and shortened miksa life expectancy.
The case of Africa, where on average each woman carrying more than 4 children and with only 6 per 100 older adults. So one might think that the distribution of welfare and greater wealth in poor countries, will bring in the future stabilization of global population. Dangerous imbalances
If in 2050 we will be 9 billion, growth miksa will be uneven in different countries of the world. According to UN forecasts, Europe will remain stable, while Africa will double its current population, reaching in 2050 to almost 2 billion (to effect an annual increase of 22 million people, slowed only by a terrible wound as AIDS). Always in Asia 2050 will be 5.3 billion people live. Weight of areas of the world, population characteristics and its distribution will vary.
As Jack Goldstone highlighted the "George Mason University" (USA), in a new analysis of the demographic bomb published in the journal miksa "Foreign Affairs", who writes: "XXI century international security will depend on the number of people who will live on the planet, as well as the fact that it is composed and distributed global population. "
1) The first trend will be small share of developed miksa countries such as Europe and North America, both from a demographic perspective, but also from the economic. In 2003, the population of Europe, the U.S. and Canadian was only 17 percent of the global area, but in 2050 will drop to 12 percent. These areas produce about 30 percent of global wealth.
2) The population miksa of developed countries will grow old, with a small percentage of people of working age and higher proportion of pensioners, with the risk of crisis insurance system and more cost for medical assistance.
3) The new population will grow, especially in poor countries (according miksa to the compositions of "Population Reference Bureau"). N In 2050 young people from 15 to 24 years will be 53 percent in Asia and the Pacific, 29 percent in Africa and 7 percent in Latin America, where opportunities are too small to have a good education and above all a good job.
The danger is that here are very good conditions for instability and conflict. Goldstone in particular highlights how these developments will occur in many Muslim countries is vital and how you can improve relations between societies
A stream that does not seem to stop, even though annual global growth rate is actually reduced: after reaching a peak of 19.2 percent in the mid-60s, is in constant decline, and today the world with 14.1% increase in year.
And at this pace as we will be in 40 years? We will be more? How to change the population of our planet? Can make predictions, given that many variables come into play. According to UN data, provided three different scenarios.
For more moderate hypothesis, in 2050 we will reach the threshold of 8 billion, the pact that the current rate of fertilization, with an average of 2:56 children born to each woman, come down to 1:54. According miksa to the hypothesis, "average" and most likely, miksa in 2050 we will be 9 billion 150 million.
This can be checked only if fertility in the less developed regions, which today is 2.73 children per woman, come down to 2.05. But for this to happen, it is necessary to start applying miksa even in the poorest countries of birth planning. The third scenario poses a 2:51 fertility rate, which will lead us to a figure 10.5 billion. Variables
What are the factors that influence population growth? There are mainly two: fertility and mortality. Both of these are influenced by many variables. Mortality, for example, is greatly decreased in recent decades throughout the world and in all age groups, for the purpose of progress made in the field of medicine.
But the situation may interfere able to edit even very short periods. An example has been scorching summer of 2003, just in France caused 15,000 deaths more than average.
However, the socio-political events miksa of a country can influence: miksa as happened in Russia and the former communist countries, where the fall of the regime worsened living conditions for a large part of the population, with a decrease of birth rate and a increased mortality (in Russia, from 1991 to 1994 the average life expectancy of men was reduced to 5 years).
In the end, it is important to develop a country. In areas of the world with the highest standard of hygiene, education and earnings per person, families make less children, one or two, and people are living much longer. On the contrary, in countries where poverty prevails, miksa little schooling and health policy inadequate, yet many children born to families and shortened miksa life expectancy.
The case of Africa, where on average each woman carrying more than 4 children and with only 6 per 100 older adults. So one might think that the distribution of welfare and greater wealth in poor countries, will bring in the future stabilization of global population. Dangerous imbalances
If in 2050 we will be 9 billion, growth miksa will be uneven in different countries of the world. According to UN forecasts, Europe will remain stable, while Africa will double its current population, reaching in 2050 to almost 2 billion (to effect an annual increase of 22 million people, slowed only by a terrible wound as AIDS). Always in Asia 2050 will be 5.3 billion people live. Weight of areas of the world, population characteristics and its distribution will vary.
As Jack Goldstone highlighted the "George Mason University" (USA), in a new analysis of the demographic bomb published in the journal miksa "Foreign Affairs", who writes: "XXI century international security will depend on the number of people who will live on the planet, as well as the fact that it is composed and distributed global population. "
1) The first trend will be small share of developed miksa countries such as Europe and North America, both from a demographic perspective, but also from the economic. In 2003, the population of Europe, the U.S. and Canadian was only 17 percent of the global area, but in 2050 will drop to 12 percent. These areas produce about 30 percent of global wealth.
2) The population miksa of developed countries will grow old, with a small percentage of people of working age and higher proportion of pensioners, with the risk of crisis insurance system and more cost for medical assistance.
3) The new population will grow, especially in poor countries (according miksa to the compositions of "Population Reference Bureau"). N In 2050 young people from 15 to 24 years will be 53 percent in Asia and the Pacific, 29 percent in Africa and 7 percent in Latin America, where opportunities are too small to have a good education and above all a good job.
The danger is that here are very good conditions for instability and conflict. Goldstone in particular highlights how these developments will occur in many Muslim countries is vital and how you can improve relations between societies
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